> ## Documentation Index
> Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://docs.ocular.dev/llms.txt
> Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further.

# Customers & retention

> Triggers in Ocular for cohort analysis, CAC payback, LTV, and repeat purchase behaviour — to diagnose customer acquisition and retention performance.

Ocular has dedicated retention screens built for cohort analysis — more powerful than Chart Builder for these questions because they track cohorts over time, show period-by-period drop-off, and support acquisition vs. retention splits.

**The hierarchy**

* ****Sales Performance → New vs. Repeat Customer Trend**** {/* TODO: relink to /use-your-data/sales-performance once that page is published. */} — quick snapshot of new/repeat mix
* ****Purchase Retention Cohort**** {/* TODO: relink to /use-your-data/cohorts/purchase-retention once that page is published. */} — definitive tool for repeat purchase, CAC payback, LTV, split-by capabilities
* ****User Activity Cohort**** {/* TODO: relink to /use-your-data/cohorts/user-activity once that page is published. */} — site/app return rates from GA4 events, *before* repurchase

***

## Are customers coming back to buy again?

**Trigger:** You need to know if you're building repeat demand or relying on one-time buyers — for forecasting, LTV, and acquisition-vs-retention budget decisions.

**Start with:** Sales Performance → New vs. Repeat Customer Trend. Shrinking new share with stable volume → acquisition slowing. Shrinking repeat share → first purchases aren't converting to second.

**Then go deeper:** **Purchase Retention Cohort** {/* TODO: relink to /use-your-data/cohorts/purchase-retention once that page is published. */} — tells you *where* and *why*.

**Configuration:** Measure = Customers · Granularity = Month · Value Representation = Percentage.

| Pattern                                | Meaning                                          | Action                                                                             |
| -------------------------------------- | ------------------------------------------------ | ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| Steep M0→M1 drop (only 10–15% return)  | Most first-time buyers never come back           | Re-engagement at Day 30–60 — welcome-back offers, product education, replenishment |
| Flattens after M2–M3 (stable at 5–8%)  | Loyal core; churn happens early                  | Invest in post-purchase flows, not late-stage win-backs                            |
| Recent cohorts retain worse than older | Retention degrading — channel quality or PMF     | Split cohorts by channel or discount code to isolate                               |
| One cohort dramatically better         | Something worked — campaign, product, onboarding | Identify and replicate                                                             |

**Headline metrics:** Repeat Purchase Rate, Customer LTV, CAC Payback in the summary panel.

**Decision:** Invest more in acquisition (repeat is healthy) or shift budget to retention (first-time buyers aren't converting to second)?

***

## Which acquisition channels produce customers who actually stick?

**Trigger:** Spending across Meta, Google, influencers, organic — and you need to know which bring high-LTV customers vs. one-time buyers.

**Go to:** **Purchase Retention Cohort → Split By: Discount Code (Acquisition) or Sales Channel** {/* TODO: relink to /use-your-data/cohorts/purchase-retention once that page is published. */}

**Configuration:** Measure = Customers · Granularity = Month · Split By in Breakout mode.

**What to look for:** Big M0 + steep drop by M2 → channel delivers volume, not value. Smaller cohort + flatter curve (15–18% still active at M5) → most sustainable acquisition source.

**Cross-check with profitability:** Switch Measure to **Accumulated CM1 per Customer** to see which channels produce *profitable* repeat buyers after COGS. A channel might retain well but at low margin if it's discount-dependent.

**Decision:** Which channels scale (high retention, high LTV), and which to cut (attract deal-seekers who churn)?

***

## How long does it take to recover my customer acquisition cost?

**Trigger:** Finance or leadership wants proof that acquisition spend is sustainable — month-by-month cumulative revenue vs. CAC, per cohort.

**Go to:** **Purchase Retention Cohort → CAC Payback toggle** {/* TODO: relink to /use-your-data/cohorts/purchase-retention once that page is published. */}

**Configuration:** Toggle CAC Payback on. Measure = Accumulated Sales per Customer (or Accumulated CM1 per Customer for profitability-adjusted). Cells turn green once accumulated revenue surpasses CAC.

| Payback timing           | Meaning                     | Action                                                                 |
| ------------------------ | --------------------------- | ---------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| M1–M2                    | Healthy — recovers quickly  | Safe to scale                                                          |
| M4–M6                    | Acceptable, watch cash flow | Tighten CAC targets, improve first-90-day repeat rates                 |
| Beyond M6 or never green | Unsustainable               | Cut budget; check if discounting is inflating CAC without building LTV |

**Split by channel** (Discount Code or Sales Channel) to find channels that pay back in M1 vs. never break even.

**Decision:** Is CAC sustainable, and which channels to scale vs. cut by payback timing?

***

## Are users coming back to my site — even before they buy again?

**Trigger:** You want to track engagement retention, not just purchase. Site return rates dropping is a leading indicator — purchase retention will follow.

**Go to:** **User Activity Cohort** {/* TODO: relink to /use-your-data/cohorts/user-activity once that page is published. */}

Tracks GA4 event-based retention. Unlike Purchase Retention Cohort (counts purchases only), this counts any event — session starts, add-to-cart, product views.

**Configuration:** Start Event = `add_to_cart` (or `session_start` for broader engagement) · Return Event = `session_start` · Granularity = Week · Split By Entry UTM Source.

**Cross-reference with Purchase Retention:** Strong site return + weak repeat purchase → problem isn't engagement, it's conversion. Users come back but don't buy. Check pricing, availability, checkout friction.

**Decision:** Which channels/audiences need better post-visit engagement (email, retargeting, content), and is the drop-off at site-return or repurchase?

***

## Who are my highest-value customers, and what do they have in common?

**Trigger:** Building segmentation, planning a loyalty programme, or trying to acquire more of your best customers.

**Go to:** **Purchase Retention Cohort → Measure: Accumulated Sales per Customer or Customer LTV** {/* TODO: relink to /use-your-data/cohorts/purchase-retention once that page is published. */}

**Configuration:** Measure = Accumulated Sales per Customer. Use Split By: Shipping City (Acquisition), Product Category (Acquisition), or Discount Code (Acquisition) to find what high-LTV cohorts share.

**Quick snapshot:** **Sales Performance → City Performance Across Price Buckets** {/* TODO: relink to /use-your-data/sales-performance once that page is published. */} — shows where high-value orders concentrate geographically.

**Decision:** Which customer profiles for lookalike audiences, and which first-purchase products/channels to prioritise for more high-LTV acquisitions?

***

## How does AOV differ between new and returning customers?

**Trigger:** Are returning customers spending more (loyalty signal) or less (discount dependency) than first-time buyers — and does it vary by channel?

**Go to:** **Purchase Retention Cohort → Measure: Net AOV or Gross AOV** {/* TODO: relink to /use-your-data/cohorts/purchase-retention once that page is published. */}

**Configuration:** Measure = Net AOV · Granularity = Month. M0 = first-purchase AOV. Later months = repeat AOV. If AOV declines later, repeat buyers may be cherry-picking discounts or buying lower-value items.

**Split By Sales Channel** to see if the pattern varies. Channels where new customers spend more than repeat → discount-heavy acquisition inflating first orders.

**Quick snapshot:** **Sales Performance → Discount Affinity by Customer Type** {/* TODO: relink to /use-your-data/sales-performance once that page is published. */} — discount usage by new vs. repeat by category.

**Decision:** Is retention generating more valuable repeat purchases, or are repeat buyers being conditioned to buy only on discount?

## Next

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